IdeaNavigator AI Daily opportunity briefs

Track Record

We score our own calls.

Each published report now carries a dated, resolvable prediction. The ledger marks calls confirmed, refuted, or still open using the same daily signal checks and public company signals that power the intelligence graph. The point is not hype; it is a public record of when the site was right and when it killed its own thesis.

100% resolved hit rate
0% owned kill rate
13/59 predictions resolved
0.074 Brier calibration

Ledger refreshed June 19, 2026. Resolutions are deterministic and appended to /changes.json as verdict-resolved.

Prediction ledger

Resolved verdicts and open calls.

Confirmed means the opportunity strengthened inside the window. Refuted means the site’s own signal decay rules killed the thesis. Open calls remain visible.

Confirmed

13

Signals strengthened or a same-vertical company/funding signal arrived during the prediction window.

Refuted

0

Owned kills: theses the site downgraded because the signal window elapsed without support.

Open

46

Still awaiting enough dated evidence to resolve without manual judgment.

Confidence bin Resolved Avg confidence Realized hit rate Brier score
60-80% 13 73% 100% 0.074

Recent resolutions

What the ledger has already graded.

Each row links back to the evidence used by the resolver.

Signal re-checks

How the back catalog is aging.

Strengthening = two or more live signals. Steady = one. Quiet = none in the current sweep — a finding, not a verdict.

Methodology

  • Vertical coverage — newer reports published in the same vertical since this one.
  • Tag momentum — newer reports sharing at least one tag.
  • Trend overlap — current trend candidates matching the idea's market and tag language.
  • Complaint echo — live complaint clusters still carrying the idea's tags.

Deterministic, recomputed from the daily research sweep, and free of paid API calls. A re-check measures signal persistence around the opportunity — it does not claim anyone built the idea.

Prediction methodology

  • One claim per report — derived from the publication verdict and why-now thesis.
  • Confirmed — signal checks strengthen, or a funded same-vertical company signal appears inside the window.
  • Refuted — the window closes and the site’s own re-check finds no surviving signal.
  • Calibration — predicted confidence is binned against realized outcomes with a Brier-style score.

Use it like an analyst

Strengthening + Validate verdict is the highest-leverage combination in the archive: the evidence aged well and nobody has claimed the wedge. Open the report, run its 7-day sprint, and decide on data.